CME Group

organization

Last mentioned: Mar 18, 2026

Timeline

  1. Fed Meeting Capitulation

    Wall Street officially prices out any chance of a rate cut at the March FOMC meeting.

  2. Labor Market Strength

    Strong jobs report confirms the economy is not cooling fast enough for a March pivot.

  3. CPI Shock

    Hotter-than-expected inflation data causes traders to scale back cut expectations to two for the year.

  4. Early Year Optimism

    Markets price in four rate cuts for 2026 following a slight dip in December inflation data.

Stories mentioning CME Group 1

fed Bearish

Fed Policy Pivot: Wall Street Abandons Rate Cut Hopes for March Meeting

As the Federal Reserve convenes for its March 18 meeting, market participants have pivoted from optimism to resignation, with futures pricing now reflecting zero probability of a rate cut. This shift follows a string of hotter-than-expected economic data that has forced a total recalibration of the 'higher for longer' narrative.

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