Last mentioned: Mar 24, 2026
Policy Implementation
Kalshi and Polymarket simultaneously announce bans on insider trading to preempt regulatory action.
Insider Trading Bans
Both platforms announce formal prohibitions on trading with non-public information.
VC Fund Launch
CEOs of Kalshi and Polymarket back a $35M fund for the prediction market sector.
Citigroup Revision
Citigroup officially lowers crypto market targets and growth projections for the 2026-2027 period.
Market Reaction
Prediction market operators signal intent to maintain operations in contested states following federal support.
CFTC Intervention
Chairman Selig publishes an op-ed asserting exclusive CFTC jurisdiction over prediction markets.
SEC Custody Rule
The SEC issues restrictive guidance on digital asset custody for national banks.
State Legal Surge
Nevada and other states intensify legal actions to ban Kalshi and Polymarket as illegal gambling.
Administration Change
Trump administration takes office; Michael Selig is later appointed as CFTC Chairman.
Legislative Stall
Key stablecoin legislation fails to clear the Senate Banking Committee before the winter recess.
FIT21 Introduction
The Financial Innovation and Technology for the 21st Century Act gains initial momentum.
Senate Scrutiny
Lawmakers begin drafting legislation to classify event contracts as 'contrary to the public interest.'
CFTC Legal Battles
Kalshi wins key court rulings allowing for broader event contract listings.
Election Peak
Prediction markets see unprecedented volume and mainstream media coverage during the U.S. election.
Election Market Surge
Prediction markets see record volume during U.S. elections, drawing federal scrutiny.
Prediction market leaders Kalshi and Polymarket have introduced comprehensive new prohibitions on insider trading to bolster market integrity and appease federal regulators. The move marks a critical pivot toward institutional-grade compliance as event-based wagering enters the financial mainstream.
Leading prediction platforms Kalshi and Polymarket have implemented strict new prohibitions on insider trading as U.S. lawmakers intensify efforts to curb event-based wagering. The move represents a defensive maneuver by the industry to establish institutional legitimacy and stave off aggressive federal intervention.
Citigroup has revised its cryptocurrency market forecasts downward, citing persistent delays in key legislative frameworks. This shift reflects growing institutional frustration with the slow pace of regulatory clarity, particularly regarding stablecoins and market structure.
The Trump administration, through the CFTC, has formally backed prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket, challenging state-level attempts to ban the platforms as illegal gambling. CFTC Chairman Michael Selig is asserting exclusive federal jurisdiction, a move that could fundamentally reshape the regulatory landscape for sports betting and event-based derivatives.