OCBC's mid-August forecast revisions quantify the bifurcation: Vietnam upgraded to 8.2% and Indonesia to 5.2%, while the Philippines was cut to 3.2% from 3.8% and Thailand nudged to 2.4%. DBS economists attribute the split to each economy's exposure to technology exports versus imported energy. The revisions signal where regional capital and manufacturing flows are heading.
Rising oil prices from the Middle East conflict are exposing Southeast Asia's fossil-fuel import dependence, splitting the region into tech-export winners and energy-import laggards. Vietnam, Malaysia and Singapore are powering ahead, while Thailand and the Philippines absorb the cost of the energy shock. Policymakers face the challenge of shielding consumers without choking growth.
AI-related semiconductor demand is the single biggest variable separating Southeast Asia's economies, with Malaysia and Singapore ranking second and third fastest and Vietnam leading. Thailand's upgrade to 2.4% was driven partly by data center investments, showing AI capex is spreading beyond chips. The region is consolidating its role as an alternative to China in the AI hardware supply chain.
Source: freemalaysiatoday.com · bworldonline.com