# Food and Drink Federation Type: Company Source: GetYourBrief — https://getyourbrief.com/entity/food-and-drink-federation Canonical HTML page: https://getyourbrief.com/entity/food-and-drink-federation ## Timeline - **2027-07**: Food inflation peak at 6.4% — The £100 January 2020 shop is forecast to reach £147.50, an additional £8.90 or 6.4% increase. - **2026-12**: Food inflation expected to reach almost 4% by Christmas — FDF says food inflation will approach 4% by Christmas 2026, below the 9% previously forecast in April. - **2026-09-09**: FDF updates forecast and Burnham responds — FDF projects food inflation near 4% by Christmas and 6.4% by July 2027; Andy Burnham calls the situation a national security issue. - **2026-08**: UK and European droughts strain supplies — Summer droughts across the UK and Europe further strained fruit and crop supplies, pushing up manufacturer costs. - **2026-06-20**: Urgent supermarket price warning issued — FDF chief executive Karen Betts and retail analysts publicly warn that the lagged impact of the Hormuz blockade, along with rising energy costs, will drive up supermarket prices over the next six to twelve months. - **2026-05**: UK inflation holds steady; food inflation eases — Despite economist expectations of a rise to 3%, headline inflation remains unchanged and food inflation moderates, masking underlying cost pressures from the Strait of Hormuz disruption. - **2026-04**: FDF forecasts 9% year-end food inflation — The industry body's April 2026 forecast predicted food inflation of about 9% by the end of 2026. - **2020-01**: Baseline grocery shop set at £100 — ONS data used by the FDF establishes the January 2020 £100 grocery basket baseline for tracking food inflation. ## Recent coverage (6 stories, network-wide) ### UK food inflation to hit 6.4% by July 2027 as FDF warns on costs 2026-09-09 11:56:21 · Sector: finance · Sentiment: Neutral · Impact: 5/10 · Sources: 2 For investors and policymakers, the FDF's forecast signals stickier UK food inflation at 6.4% through mid-2027, driven by energy, diesel, and commodity spikes. This raises pressure on the Bank of England's path and widens cost risks for food manufacturers, retailers, and consumer credit. Full story: https://getfinancebrief.com/story/finance-food-inflation-fdf-6-4-july-2027 ### UK food inflation to peak at 6.4% as £8.90 added to grocery shop 2026-09-09 11:55:45 · Sector: retail · Sentiment: Neutral · Impact: 5/10 · Sources: 2 For grocery, convenience, and e-commerce players, the FDF forecast means another 6.4% cost hike on an already elevated basket, squeezing volumes and accelerating trade-down. Retailers will face renewed pressure to absorb input costs or risk losing price-sensitive shoppers. Full story: https://getretailbrief.com/story/retail-food-inflation-peak-6-4-july-2027 ### Food inflation to peak at 6.4% in July 2027, pressuring BoE path 2026-09-09 00:35:45 · Sector: finance · Sentiment: Negative · Impact: 6/10 · Sources: 2 The FDF's forecast points to sticky UK food inflation — 3.9% by December 2026 and a 6.4% peak in July 2027 — driven by commodity shocks (cocoa +100%, wheat +45%) and energy costs. That persistence complicates the Bank of England's disinflation path and keeps food a key swing factor in rate decisions. Full story: https://getfinancebrief.com/story/finance-uk-food-inflation-boe-2027 ### £100 shop now £138.60 as food inflation hits 3.9% by Christmas 2026-09-09 00:34:36 · Sector: retail · Sentiment: Negative · Impact: 6/10 · Sources: 2 British consumers will pay more for groceries this Christmas and into 2027, with food inflation forecast at 3.9% by December and a 6.4% peak next July. A £100 January 2020 basket now costs £138.60 and is heading toward £147.50, squeezing household budgets and reshaping retail demand. Full story: https://getretailbrief.com/story/retail-uk-grocery-inflation-christmas-2026 ### Strait of Hormuz Closure to Inflate UK Food Prices with a 6-Month Lag, Supply Experts Warn 2026-07-25 11:12:26 · Sector: supply · Sentiment: Neutral · Impact: 5/10 · Sources: 6 Industry leaders are warning that the supply chain blow from the Strait of Hormuz’s closure will reach UK supermarket shelves only after a 3-6 month lag. As manufacturers absorb higher raw material and shipping costs, procurement and logistics teams are racing to redesign routes and build inventory before the full price wave hits. Full story: https://getsupplybrief.com/story/hormuz-supply-chain-impact-food-price-lag-6-months ### 12 Staple Foods Face Price Hikes as UK Supermarkets Warn of Lagged Hormuz Inflation 2026-07-25 11:10:44 · Sector: retail · Sentiment: Neutral · Impact: 5/10 · Sources: 6 A dozen everyday grocery items from bread to tea are at risk of significant price increases as the Strait of Hormuz closure finally filters through supply chains. With food inflation currently easing, UK grocers are grappling with when and how to pass on rising input costs without losing price-sensitive shoppers. Full story: https://getretailbrief.com/story/uk-supermarket-food-price-warning-hormuz-12-staples-risk --- This page is a machine-readable summary. Sentiment measures the directional read of each development for this entity, not the tone of the reporting; impact weights consequence, not syndication reach. See https://getyourbrief.com/guides/methodology for the full editorial methodology.