Food inflation to peak at 6.4% in July 2027, pressuring BoE path
The FDF's forecast points to sticky UK food inflation — 3.9% by December 2026 and a 6.4% peak in July 2027 — driven by commodity shocks (cocoa +100%, wheat +45%) and energy costs. That persistence complicates the Bank of England's disinflation path and keeps food a key swing factor in rate decisions.